If you are already a member, then share your thoughts on the Futurity Trophy Weekend 6f Handicap by adding a tip on the race here. You may also be interested in other preview blogs that we have packed full of information, head down to the Other Principal Races at Doncaster Racecourse section for links to these. Getting one’s head around sectional timing is not the easiest way to play the horses, but there are real insights to be gleaned for those who take some time to figure it out.

• The first chase of the week is the Arkle Challenge Trophy, a two mile event for novices.
• Over the next few centuries, interest in horse racing continued to grow.
• Given he’s normally an excellent jumper, there are essentially no holes in Constitution Hill’s profile whatsoever and he’s a very worthy odds-on favourite.
• Two tries at the track, both at the Festival, have yielded two victories; the Bumper score was by a narrow margin, his Ballymore victory more unequivocal.
• Beyond Conceit impressed when returning from a long absence on hurdles debut.
• But as a professional you do not have bets just for the sake of it.
• To spell it out, in the most recent two Cheltenham Festivals, Irish runners have secured 22 wins compared with just six for the UK.
• Again we see winners up and down the odds boards, with the sweet (but highly unpredictable and potentially coincidental) spot being north of 25/1 and south of 80/1.

Grand National Tips: Paddy Power’s ultimate Cheat Sheet for the big race on Saturday

The overall figures now stand at 8/467 (1.71% SR, A/E 0.58) since 2008. Ignoring the Albert Bartlett, horses priced 16/1+ in novice Grade 1’s are now 3/327 (0.92% SR, -251 at SP) since 2008. Even allowing a little latitude in the ‚potato race‘, the four rags came from a total population of 336 horses sent off greater than 16/1. All of the above verbosity is by way of suggesting that Shishkin will probably win assuming he turns up in one piece (never a given). But a top priced 8/11, whilst still very far from offensive in value terms, is unexciting for those of us with limited elevens to risk in the pursuit of eights.

NFL Tips: Texans to batter Jets in Thursday night’s 18/1 Bet Builder

Quite apart from the small field and deep ground, that result is flattering because Boothill looked booked for a certain second, within ten lengths or so of the winner, when ejecting two out. Connections mentioned after that 28th career start, Edwardstone’s first as a ten-year-old, that they’d worked out how to ride him. In any case, that chat is patent hogwash as a record of four wins from six completed starts – including the Grade 1 Henry VIII Novices‘ Chase – when racing prominently asserts. Further, he won the Tingle Creek (G1) when held up so, you know, it’s not about the run style, is it? That said, such a sound bite implies he’ll want to go forward here and he is unlikely to be alone in that desire.

Mark Lawrenson

• Promising start chasing home Masekela on debut but pitched into the deep end in Group company at Ascot in June and failed to fire again at Newmarket next time out; back to form beaten a length over C&D; gelded since so can improve again.
• Henry Longfellow stuck on well for second and was only beaten a neck, with three lengths back to French Guineas winner Metropolitan.
• Tommy heads for the Albert Bartlett, rightly so as his effort in Naas was very much one of a stayer.
• Only Sir Note and Lemon’s Gent come into this race in form and both look beatable.
• Fellow three-year-old Volterra is another with plenty of upside but his draw in stall two might not be the best.
• You should seek tips from reputable sources to enhance your chances of picking a winner.
• The owners have been very good and said if that is what you want to do then go for it.
• Each way is not an option in a seven-runner race generally, still less with such a domineering jolly; but ‚without the favourite‘ is a way in.

The Coral-Eclipse looks a one-way Enable fest now that Lord North is out of the race so I’m going elsewhere on the Sandown card on Sunday. O’Brien’s exciting colt produced a massive performance in the Hampton Court Stakes at Royal Ascot, flying home with a withering Bolts Up Daily late run to topple some well-regarded prospects. And with Enable making her long-awaited return in the Coral-Eclipse on Sunday, the stage is set for a sporting showdown to savour. He has shown his best here and went close over course and distance last time out.

Horse Racing in the UK

Indefatigable looks like getting her optimal conditions for the first time in a while and may be over-priced for hail mary each way players. Mrs Milner, like Heaven Help Us, was a handicap hurdle winner at last year’s Festival, her score coming in the three mile Pertemps Final. This is a different test, more about speed than stamina, though she had the gears to win a couple of lower grade two mile hurdles earlier in her career. Related, and perhaps more remarkable, is that the last five favourites in the race – all of them short – were turned over. In spite of the small field the Supreme remains a competitive race with five horses at single figure prices. They are headed by inmates of the unofficial Prestbury Cup team captains Nicky Henderson and Willie Mullins and, more pertinently, their A and B players, Constitution Hill and Jonbon (NJH) and Dysart Dynamo and Kilcruit (WPM).

A recent history of short priced favourites at the Cheltenham Festival

Charlie Fellowes’ speedy mare won this in 2021 and grows an extra leg when the mud is flying. She has won three times on soft and heavy ground and conditions are in her favour. Again we see winners up and down the odds boards, with the sweet (but highly unpredictable and potentially coincidental) spot being north of 25/1 and south of 80/1. Those unconsidered athletes have bagged nine of the 50 races for a profit of 23 points at SP and 331 points at BSP (thanks almost entirely to one enormous return). Of the 964 runners in such races in the past ten years, 842 (87%) were aged five to eight (ignoring the Fred Winter). They won all bar two of the races (95%), and claimed 92% of the places.

Dundalk (IRE) Tips

Diversifying your sources by leveraging multiple tipsters can provide diverse perspectives on races, including insights on global events. Get Your Tips Out maintains a consistent standard of excellence by offering high-quality tips consistently, especially on prominent races. With a finger on the pulse of races across the world, punters can rely on Get Your Tips Out to deliver timely and in-depth analysis of not just mainstream events but also niche races that can be hidden gems for expert bettors. Although top UK racing tipsters, followers of Australian races have also benefited greatly, with our well-researched analyses.

• However, the win strike rate for Irish runners in the five years from 2008 to 2012 was 6.8%, whereas in the past five years (2018 to 2022) it has been 9.7%.
• There looks to be plenty of early speed in this line up with each of Ha d’Or, Dysart Dynamo and Jonbon leading in their most recent three races.
• „But by the time he got to the winning post he was miles away and gone.
• It is worth noting that nine of those 22 were priced at 7/1 or shorter.
• He’s knocking on a bit now, eleven years young, but that didn’t stop his mate Tiger Roll from bagging his own hat-trick (that’s better) at the same age.
• We only show races which have yet to be run – all past races can be found in our Results section.

Veneer of Charm wins the Fred Winter Handicap Hurdle

There might be 34 runners but MR.INCREDIBLE sounds so similar to my husband that I really have no other choice. The biggest race of the Jumps season is upon us and we’ve got you sorted. Over the years, the vastly experienced member of the weighing room has been Ireland’s champion jockey on three occasions. “I’ve been in the gym and have been doing lots of fitness work, but there is a big difference between being fit and being race-fit. In the months after the fall, Russell faced a gruelling recovery, having bolts drilled into his head and weights hung from his head to realign his spine.

Royale Pagaille – National Hunt Chase – 5/2 bet365 (NRNB, BOG)

Yesterday’s blog underlined why having a clear line on true value is so important in successful long term professional backing. I had La Breuil in at evens favourite, the impressive winner touched 2/1 before returning an SP of 15/8. Despite the drift from an opening 13/8 – getting around 2/1 for an even money chance is clearly value. The same happened later at Newbury for a race I briefed my private clients about.

• This is because less extreme going conditions tend to have bigger field sizes and, therefore, smaller win percentages.
• His form is in another postcode to his rivals in a market still trying to get him beaten with the wonderful but past his best Altior and a sizeable group of second division chasers.
• Queen’s Brook will be Gordon Elliott’s hope for the race, the mare having run third in the 2020 Champion Bumper behind Ferny Hollow before skipping last year’s Festival.
• No, the job here is to look at how the percentages within a going column change based on the number of previous wins on that going.
• Diversifying your sources by leveraging multiple tipsters can provide diverse perspectives on races, including insights on global events.

LATEST HORSE RACING RESULTS

The ex-French four-year-old, who joined Karl Burke for the start of the year, travelled from Middleham to Newcastle on 16 March with a record of one win from 15 attempts. Will Buick’s partner dropped to handicap company for a valuable event on Sandown Park’s Coral-Eclipse undercard and lost little in defeat with a three-quarter-length second to Sinjaari. There is more to come on the fifth outing of Checkandchallenge’s promising career and he’s fancied to take the step back up in class in his stride.

Let’s dive right into some of the horse racing bet types that might take your fancy. You also have the option of selecting the starting price, also listed as “SP”. This is the odds of the runner at the start of the race, and it will not always be the same as the odds that you see when you look at the site.

WORLDWIDE STAKES

By incorporating these elements into your betting routine, you pave the way for a fulfilling and sustainable journey in the world of horse racing. Effectively utilising free horse racing tips requires a strategic approach that combines expert insights. Rebel’s Romance was then off the course for 300 days before returning to Dubai at the start of this year, suffering wide-margin defeats in his two attempts. But, on the back of another 134-day lay-off, Will Buick’s partner sprang back to form in the Listed Fred Archer Stakes at Goodwood on the final Saturday of June.

Kempton Park Horse Racing Trends (ITV)

• O’Connor has been a fine rider over the years but there are no weak links in the riding line-up here, and this race ought to go to the best horse at the trip, pure and simple.
• A final word on the thrilling exhibition by Un De Sceaux yesterday which crowned an outstanding day for Willie Mullins and Ruby Walsh.
• As I write there are four horses priced at 5/1 or shorter, headed – just – by Gaelic Warrior.
• Kyrov is currently rated 75kg (165), Golden Son 71 (156) and Tanganyika’s mark in France is 61.5 (135).
• That might be the ultra-consistent Mister Coffey, who has placed Festival form to his name.
• The trend factor which had produced 10+ winners and shows the best LSP, an LSP of +52.50 is when runners had 1 place in the past 30 days.
• Full Shift figures on a lenient handicap mark if the first time “cheek-pieces+tongue-tie” have a positive effect.

Jockeys are important at this meeting, however, and the experience of Rachael Blackmore versus the exuberance of Chester Williams tilts the pendulum in favour of Champion Green if having to choose between them. Gordon’s Britzka and Ebasari both measure up on this ‚interesting rag‘ angle but are shorter than ideal to take the chance. The Mares‘ Hurdle had been dominated by Willie Mullins almost since its inception in 2008. Mullins was actually unrepresented in that inaugural running, but then went on to win nine of the next ten editions, six of them with the fantastic though only occasionally seen Quevega. However, more recently, the omnipotent Closutton barn has enjoyed success in the Mares‘ Hurdle only once in the last five years, and not at all in the last three.

The hood was left off Alcala on latest start, when he was well beaten before falling two out. The headgear returns today but he is a very risky proposition. A final word on the thrilling exhibition by Un De Sceaux yesterday which crowned an outstanding day for Willie Mullins and Ruby Walsh. Many had been premature in casting doubts over the Mullins yard and the early prices on offer for Un De Sceaux were value –  which we took full advantage of.

Our Scout and Trader have picked out the following bets for Race 6 👇🏼

Both of those top level scores were on the soft side of good, though it might be a lot wetter here. I just feel that, if Edwardstone also goes forward, and with any or all of Jonbon, Elixir De Nutz, Funambule Sivola and El Fabiolo snapping at his heels, he’s going to be vulnerable in the last quarter of the race. All of the last 14 winners had raced 6-16 times under rules in their career. Ballyburn can lead or follow, handles the ground, has won at the distance, generally jumps fluently for a novice and has the best form. Again, he’s not necessarily a bad price even though he’s a short price.

London Racing Club Cheltenham Preview Night Notes

Ardkilly Witness is suited by this track and is expected to run Rathlin Rose very close. But I would want the insurance of something closer to an each way price before getting too involved. Ardkilly Witness has a 5lb pull in the weights with Rathlin Rose on their C/D form from three weeks ago, when Rathlin Rose won pretty comfortably. A ‘Mission Impossible’ handicap to finish off the festival. Native River needs to improve and in my view is too short in the market. Djakadam and Outlander have little between them on form in Ireland.

Bet £10 & Get £30 in Free Bets for new customers at bet365

If you’d had the proverbial crystal ball and been able to predict every front-runner at HQ since 2009, you’d have been on to a very good thing as you can see from the table below, taken from geegeez‘ Query Tool. ‚4‘ signifies an early front runner, ‚3‘ a prominent racer early, ‚2‘ a midfield runner, and ‚1‘ a hold up type. This particular race was won by the unexposed, and still unbeaten – now in three races – Hickory, who was a class above his rivals. As the result shows, he was good enough to travel on the heels of the speed, while the placed horses came from far back, even though typically this course and distance favours front-runners (see the green blob above the pace map).

Bonus funds must be used within 30 days otherwise any unused bonus shall be removed. Bonus funds are 100% match up to £300 on your 1st deposit, 25% match up to £800 on your 2nd deposit, and 50% match up to £400 on your 3rd deposit. Bonus funds are separate to Cash funds and subject to 35x wagering the total bonus & cash. Paddy Power has a commitment to offering the best odds on any UK and Irish racing event, and this is supported by a range of promos and other specials. Price boosts, enhanced odds and other promotions run throughout the year, and particularly around major events like Cheltenham, Royal Ascot and the Grand National. They also offer a Money Back Special on selected race events each day for horses that finish second to the SP favorite.

The ground has now eased to Soft with Heavy places for the hurdlers. In comparison Fly Camp, also making his handicap debut, looks on a high mark on form achieved. Also the Cheltenham Festival racing charity fundraiser is set to get going. The exclusive preview will be despatched this afternoon and by signing up now you will get your membership ready for tomorrow. Last year’s winner of this race Morning Reggie has been out of form since.

Nicholls‘ 1 from 30 record since 2013 is equally difficult to excuse. And in terms of jumping acuity, he has yet to make a serious mistake in three chases. True, all were small field affairs, but the Arkle, too, will quite likely cut up to a handful of contenders. Still, those fences need to be jumped, and he has to arrive pristine at Prestbury. The leftfield option is First Flow, who was exhilarating at Ascot last time. He’d need supplementing, very likely, but he’d also need to improve another eight pounds on current ratings – less likely.

AND of course this type of favourite can be confidently predicted before the off. Just back the one that’s been given three quiet runs and a mark that’s well below what it’s really capable of. The two I like most are Libberty Hunter and Hardy du Seuil with the former looking really solid in the conditions. He would be unbeaten over fences but for overjumping on debut at Chepstow and has added wins at Wincanton and on the New Course here, beating Arkle hope Matata by a length in a 2m handicap in December. Those wins have come on heavy and soft ground and he coped well with the jumping test when scoring last time. A better question might be to ask which horses can put him under pressure, so let’s posit that one.