If you still think taking 7/2 is acceptable when you can get 4/1, you’re doing it wrong. The course has provided an early hunting ground for a number of national hunt legends. Multiple Grand National winners have scored at Bangor, while Gold Cup winning trio Norton’s Coin, Mr Mulligan and Denman all tasted success there before their finest hour. None of the runners with racecourse experience leap off the page, so it may be worth chancing SAINT SEGAL. His dam was a very talented hurdler in France and his half-sister has also won over timber this season, so there is hope that he could be above average.
Grand National Tips: Paddy Power’s ultimate Cheat Sheet for the big race on Saturday
In fact, overall, 17 of Henderson’s 32 runners in the race finished in the first three – take that, Willie! There’s a leap of faith required with this chap that there isn’t with some of the Irish Grade 1 horses but that’s reflected in their respective odds. One does need to keep a weather eye on the yard’s form, however, as there have been a fair number of P’s on the recent Hendo score card. He hasn’t had a runner, let alone a winner, since 2nd March and has just one entered pre-Cheltenham, at Plumpton on Monday.
Irish runners versus UK runners
We have already noted some positives connected with Irish runners or those that raced in Ireland last time. It goes without saying that the vast majority of horses racing at Cheltenham that raced in Ireland last time out would have been from Irish stables; in fact 97% of them were. LTO winners outside Graded and Listed company have by far the poorest strike rate as you would expect. They have incurred losses of £116.97 (ROI -8.3%) over the period of study. LTO winners outside Graded and Listed company have not surprisingly struggled even more when the race at Cheltenham is a Graded one – in these races their record reads 50 wins from 957 (SR 5.2%) for a loss of £149.46 (ROI -15.6%).
Warm Spell
I suspect Latin Verse can similarly show that experience is no bad thing when it comes to the Boodles. At 33-1 and six places, he has to be worth a few quid each-way. Iberico Lord was supplemented for this after the defection of stablemate Constitution Hill, and he has serious handicap winning form this term. Specifically, he won the Greatwood over course and distance in November and then the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury in February.
Horse Racing Tips: A 10/1 pick tops our Chelmsford fancies tonight
He’ll be finishing strongly and looks a solid each way alternative to a ’nothing between them‘ top of the market. If we’re looking for the Hail Mary, a phrase our editor Matt loves so much, then it has to be Latin Verse. He looks so unlike a Boodles winner it’s untrue – this will be his seventh hurdles start and he’s already raced in an all-aged handicap at Ludlow last time out, one which he won by no fewer than 19 lengths. A 10lb rise for that win not only looks lenient – Timeform expected him to get a stone and more – but it creeps him right into the bottom of the handicap. If you’re a lover of figures (and we are, of course) he comes out well on both form and time.
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- This rises to a bit more than 12% for those with a single prior win on good ground and hovers around the same figure for runners who have twice won previously on good; it then drops a notable bit for triple good scorers.
- The manner in which he travelled easily and then stayed on strongly at Sandown last time has the mark of a smart performer who is ahead of his mark.
- I cannot with clean conscience propose you bet anything in this race on my say so.
- Throw in Henry de Bromhead – whose team is bolstered by the high profile addition of the Cheveley Park bluebloods – and Dan Skelton and you have six handlers responsible for two-thirds of the Festival winners in the last five years.
- Fancied runners such as Protektorat and A Plus Tard would do well not to gift easy lengths to talented rivals by lagging behind in the first half of the race.
- GOD’S OWN Has some solid form in his record but is a light of former days and hard to fancy.
- A test as unique as the Cheltenham Gold Cup makes it something of a specialist’s race.
- In theory William Money is thrown-in racing of a 15lb lower mark than when winning over fences 2 days ago.
44 of the 54 winners in the sample came from avoiding these negatives, from just 38.5% of the runners. They were collectively worth a profit of 7.57 points at SP, and a slightly more worthwhile 31.15 points at BSP. There is the occasional shock result in Cheltenham Festival novice Grade 1’s. But four, out of 54, is not a percentage on which to hang one’s wagering hat. Interestingly, perhaps – or maybe just coincidence – two of the four winners at 16/1 or longer in the last decade came in the Albert Bartlett.
- Once we’ve identified likely fast finishers in the field, we need to overlay the circumstances in which they recorded their fast finish on top of how we perceive today’s race will be run.
- Best of the British could be Handstands, for Ben Pauling and former Gold Cup sponsor Tim Radford.
- He ran fourth in last season’s Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle so is likely to be finishing strongly at this easier distance.
- Lantry Lady, who falls into the „could be anything“ category, boasts a perfect 2-2 record over hurdles with wins on heavy ground.
- Epatante appears to be regressing more slowly than Honeysuckle and „mullered“ some lesser horses at Doncaster last time.
My big 3-1 NAP loves soft ground and heads to Ascot in great form
More than that, the same horses seem to have hit the frame with regularity. In 2020, Ireland’s trainers saddled seven of the dozen runners, again taking top honours but this time ceding the consolation spots to the domestic quintet. Irish runners finished 1st, 4th, 5th, 6th, 7th, 10th and fell.
- Winners of one or two races on heavy are 1.4 times more likely to win than heavy maidens; and winners of three heavy ground races previously are more than 1.5 times more likely to prevail than maidens on that extreme of going.
- Her price represents a very solid each way bet in an open section and, as you know by now, if she doesn’t run it’s money back.
- The table above shows the performance in handicaps of four to seven runners over the last five years.
- William Buick winners have been with Bohemian Melody (2011) and Jamaican Bolt (2014).
- He was extremely impressive on his debut at Fontwell last month, travelling strongly and powering clear on the run-in without breaking sweat.
- Remember to use the best racing tipsters along with the information on this page to find you a bet on the 2025 Futurity Trophy Weekend 6f Handicap.
- He has gone close a few times in these big handicaps and if his top rider can smuggle him through then he has every chance.
- Only deposits via cards will qualify (Apple Pay excluded).
Robin Goodfellow’s racing tips: Best bets for Tuesday, April 19
Going a step further, I’d favour run style over draw in certain scenarios which I’ll come on to. And I’d especially favour a horse from a wide gate with an ostensibly uncontested lead. A wide-open renewal of this race, but it is still very hard to get away from GOOBINATOR. Donald McCain’s 5-year-old finished 4th in the Cesarewitch behind Buzz at Newmarket last month, beaten 8-lengths and on that evidence, he looks to be exceptionally well-handicapped on a mark of 126 over hurdles. He won under Brian Hughes at Ayr last October, on the same mark as he can race off today and he looks to have a favourites chance.
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- But, on balance, I’ll stick with what I have and cheer the champ to repeat and remain unbeaten.
- When it comes to promotions for big race events, it’s always worth shopping around.
- They are 0 from 22, though then nine-year-old Whisper nearly benefited from Might Bite’s errant course up the hill last year in the RSA Chase.
- A wide-open renewal of this race, but it is still very hard to get away from GOOBINATOR.
- The overall figures now stand at 8/467 (1.71% SR, A/E 0.58) since 2008.
- There’s plenty of content about how to use the geegeez toolkit elsewhere – try this link for a run down, so in this post I want to consider the other term, differentiators.
- Ardkilly Witness is suited by this track and is expected to run Rathlin Rose very close.
- He’s since won the 2m4f Grade 1 Mersey Novices‘ at Aintree, and then this season he’s added a Grade 3 at Down Royal and the Grade 1 Christmas Hurdle at Leopardstown.
Horse racing has long been one of the most popular sports in the UK, drawing audiences in the millions for some race events. Again, Betfair and Paddy Power have the largest availability of live streaming events, closely followed by SkyBet. At the time of writing, Paddy Power had an impressive 15 live streaming races – nearly double the 8 to be found on 888sport. Betfair allows you to stream their selection of live races from a minimum £0.50 bet. There, you will be able to see a list of all the runners and various stats about them such as their weights, ages, and jockeys.
Grand National
The next best course which has produced the second most winners is Ayr, there has been a total number of 3 winners of this race who ran at Ayr last time out. How competitive is the Futurity Trophy Weekend 6f Handicap market? When looking at the over-rounds for the last 13 renewals, the most competitive market was in 2022 when the race had an over-round of 111%.
These older lads and lasses are now 0 from 24, though Faugheen looks a live chance in a novice chase, probably the Marsh (former JLT) this time around. Philip Hobbs is 0 from 17 in this type of race in the review period, and has only had one horse placed. That was Fair Along, third in the 2008 Champion Chase, and Hobbs tends to fare better at Aintree, though he’s had a wretched season blighted – one suspects – by a touch of the virus. Just one of the 94 runners sporting blinkers or cheekpieces won – Our Vic in the 2008 Ryanair – and such horses‘ place strikerate is poor, too.
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- It looks like this year’s Champion Hurdle may be run at an even to quick tempo, with both Appreciate It and Teahupoo generally going forward.
- If that’s correct, we’d expect a steady tempo to the race; after all, if you’re leading without any contention, it makes sense usually to conserve as much energy for the finish as possible.
- Telmesomethinggirl, who returned to hurdling this season after a stint over fences, looked rusty on her seasonal return at Leopardstown but was a lot better when a 1¼ length 2nd of four to Zarak The Brave at Naas last time.
- It’s such a thrilling sport and at its best when you get the chance to see the horses close up in the flesh.
- That maiden score, like his flat maiden win, was on good ground and, with the drying forecast, conditions look to be in his corner.
- Tellherthename was withdrawn from the Betfair Hurdle on account of the ground and connections will want it to dry out as much as possible for their charge.
- It wouldn’t surprise me if he was contesting Group 1 contests by the end of the season.
That form reads pretty well for all that it’s probably a dollop below the pick of the Irish team. Still, he has very clear potential and might come out as the top home team runner (if you like sound bites, his trainer has apparently suggested Handstands is better than Willoughby Court, who won this race in 2017). When you’re placing your bets, you’ll come across jargon specific to horse racing and betting. While you’ll mostly find it straightforward to pick your winners and place your bets across our recommended bookies, it’s nevertheless important you understand what the most common terms mean and how they might affect your bets. In-play betting is arguably a little less effective in horse racing compared to say, football or tennis. Horse races are usually fast moving by their nature, blink-and-you-miss-it type events.
Thunder Sparks
Among a clutch of lightly raced juveniles, Bolt Action, Kaasib and Paddy’s Day all merit a second look. A short-head Wolverhampton maiden victor in November, Fast Company’s son made his return for 2022 in the Listed Burradon Stakes on Newcastle’s All-Weather Championships Finals card in April. Simply register, place you £10 bet on horse racing and you will receive £30 in free bets. The four-year-old grey has improved this season, winning a Listed race at Doncaster and the Group 2 bet365 Mile at Sandown, while he was second to Audience in the Lockinge at Newbury last time out.
Free Horse Racing Tips and Trends
- Of course, he can win, but there’s now’t in the book to say he should.
- “He’s been bumping into some good horses and he’s a tough old dude, he’s Taghrooda’s brother.
- Now, no betting system is perfect, and some may prove to be more hype than substance, but there are three that are worth taking an in-depth look at specifically.
- Many of our holiday cottages are burrowed in these areas, making them the perfect base for staying while learning more about the history of the Gold Cup.
- There are horse racing tips all over the internet to help you find a good deal and get to grips with some of the many unusual phrases that you will find here.
- It works as an index where, like IV, 1.00 is a par figure and better or worse than 1.00 is a degree of good or bad respectively.
- Horse racing is a sport that can be tracked and monitored.
Gaillard du Mesnil is opposable at the prices in the NH Chase. Don’t think that race’s profile suits such a strong stayer any more. Churchstonewarrior could be a playable alternative – going slower could suit him. Mahler Mission ran a fair race (7th of 16) in last year’s Albert Bartlett and, though he was whacked in a novices‘ chase at Cheltenham early in the season, that was surely a sighter on ground much faster than ideal. More recently he’s won a beginners‘ and then ran a gallant second to Churchstonewarrior. The second possible in that context is I Like To Move It, whose Greatwood and Kingwell Hurdle wins have advertised his ‚dark horse‘ claims.
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“Annoyingly I never felt I was going to get to the winner, but I can’t fault him. I’m so pleased and the connections are so happy, he’s definitely got a Group One in him. Hayley Turner was proud of the performance of Docklands after the pair combined to fill the runner-up spot. “Nurlan was keen to keep Silvestre on Charyn after his winning start at Doncaster and it was Nurlan’s decision to keep him on right the way through.
This has presumably been the target for Paul Hennessy’s charge; he also owns and bred her. Of the others on the shortlist, Does He Know’s trainer, Kim Bailey, has had a winner (in 1999) and two places from four Ultima starters, including last year’s second, Happygolucky. And Tea Clipper is interesting with first time cheekpieces and first run after a wind operation. He was no match for Bravemansgame in the Grade 1 Kauto Star (Feltham as was) but this will be more his cup of, well, you know. Full Back won at the New Year’s Day fixture and was probably looked after a little at Taunton in his only race since.
Nicky Henderson has Jingko Blue, three times a runner and twice a winner to date. A non-standard prep has seen him eschew Graded action in favour of a Class 3 handicap last time out; he fair bolted up there, seeing his official rating balloon from 124 to 140 in the process. Even allowing for the further progression that leap implies, he still has something like a stone to find with Ballyburn. And soft ground may not be in his favour, though the jury remains out on that score.
Mitbaahy opened his campaign with a close second at Nottingham at the start of May before going one better against three opponents for a valuable conditions stakes over five furlongs at Hamilton Park the following month. In the Coral Cup, Fixe Le Kap can run a big race at a big price. He has had problems this season but is back in top form at home and has the soft ground that he relishes. I have spoken to Daryl Jacob and Bolts Up Daily he is going to ride a patient race, sneaking into contention, and he is one of the best in the weighing room at that. You could not wish to meet a nicer guy than Daryl, and there is nobody better at holding up a horse, so I have given him his riding instructions and told him to creep into the race. The versatility of PRESENTING PERCY is rare in a staying chaser and that quality suggests he is a cut above the average.
Promising start chasing home Masekela on debut but pitched into the deep end in Group company at Ascot in June and failed to fire again at Newmarket next time out; back to form beaten a length over C&D; gelded since so can improve again. Third of the four runners during the early stages, Rebel’s Romance challenged entering the final quarter mile and lengthened up the hill to beat stablemate Kemari by a convincing three and three-quarter lengths. A reproduction of that form may well suffice here, with Kemari, Regal Reality and Max Vega taken to fight it out for the minor medals. Luke Harvey, who is the perfect height to get a close view of these things, tells me that Altior’s foot problem can be skipped over, and it is fantastic news that we will see that horse go head-to-head with Douvan. MAHLER MISSION looks a bit of value as the 4m 2d trip and whatever ground he encounters should be fine.
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